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Credal set : ウィキペディア英語版
Credal set
A credal set is a set of probability distributions〔Levi, I. (1980). ''The Enterprise of Knowledge''. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. 〕 or, equivalently, a set of probability measures. A credal set is often assumed or constructed to be a closed convex set. It is intended to express uncertainty or doubt about the probability model that should be used, or to convey the beliefs of a Bayesian agent about the possible states of the world.〔Cozman, F. (1999). (Theory of Sets of Probabilities (and related models) in a Nutshell ).〕
Let X denote a categorical variable, P(X) a probability mass function over X, and K(X) a credal set over X. If K(X) is convex, the credal set can be equivalently described by its extreme points \mathrm(). The expectation for a function f of X with respect to the credal set K(X) can be characterised only by its lower and upper bounds. For the lower bound,
:\underline()=\min_ \sum_x f(x) P(x).
Notably, such an inference problem can be equivalently obtained by considering only the extreme points of the credal set.
It is easy to see that a credal set over a Boolean variable cannot have more than two vertices, while no bounds can be provided for credal sets over variables with three or more values.
==See also==

* imprecise probability
* Dempster–Shafer theory
* probability box
* robust Bayes analysis
* upper and lower probabilities

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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